Dr. Jim Meehan Nails the Message to the Wall: We Need to Change Vaccine Safety Science NOW

Zach: “[The study] came out and it made it sound as if boy this is the nail in
the coffin [in the vaccine/autism question], what’s your take?”
Dr. Meehan: “It’s definitely not the nail in the coffin. This is kind of a rehash of some of the the same stuff that’s been coming out of Danish studies for quite a while. In fact there’s a lot of problems with the study. The first one goes back so you know to the point of who funded it…”

 

Read ktul coverage from this interview.

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An Autopsy on Hviid et al. 2019’s MMR/Vaccine Science-Like Activities

An Autopsy on Hviid et al. 2019’s MMR/Vaccine Science-Like Activities

JUST IN TIME to be sandwiched between two one-sided Senate Hearings, a new cohort study by Hviid et al. has all of the hallmarks of a completely well-done study.  Well done as in overcooked.  Here is my initial assessment.

The burnt ends on this brisket are obvious.  Just like all the past studies on the MMR/autism question, the study focuses on one vaccine.  This is a problem because the variable they call “genetic risk” (having an older sibling), which is the most significant variable, is confounded with health user bias (there is no control over vaccine cessation).  It’s an important variable, but genetic risk of what?  Of autism?  Or of autism following vaccination?  It’s impossible to tell because the study never tests a VACCINE x FAMILY HISTORY interaction term.  Or any other interaction term that includes vaccines.

Were it not such an imporant question for which so much “science-like activities” have occurred, we could just shrug our shoulders, one could argue that defining the data analysis strategy is just about how one like to season their meat.  But there is real evidence Hviid (who did the data analysis) appears to be up real data cookery here.

(1) The smoking gun is the study-wide autism rate of 0.9-1%.  The rate of ASD in Denmark is 1.65%.  Where are the missing cases of ASD?  Given past allegations of this group’s malfeasance and fraud, the rest of the study cannot be accepted based on this disparity alone: the study group is not representative of the population being studied.

(2) They did not consider anything about >1 vaccine per visit when the MMR was given.  Comment below if your child regressed into ASD following receipt of the MMR + other vaccines (“MMR + OTHER”).  Here’s an interesting question: Comment below if your child regressed into ASD following receipt of MMR alone after having received no prior vaccines (“MMR ALONE NO PRIOR”).  Comment below if the situation was “MMR ALONE WITH PRIOR VACCINES”).

Cumulative vaccine exposure is the variable that might reflect risk better, as would “>1 vaccine received on date of MMR vaccination”.  It is meaningless to study a single vaccine exposure in a population that is being vaccinated so many times before the MMR.

(3)  Apparently vaccine risk in immigrants do not matter because the study required that individual have a valid entry in the Denmark birth registry.  Why would that matter?  Because the odds of receiving many vaccines at once upon entry into Denmark is very, very high. Oddly, without explanation, the study excluded 11 people with autism.  To avoid translational failure, the MMR should not be used on any of the clinical groups that were excluded from the study.

(4) While the appear to have learned how to combine risk variables into risk covariates, they did not test models that combine different risk variables (such as vaccine and parent’s age).  Single-variable, 2-variable, 3-variable… etc models should all have been trained on a training set (66% of the data), optimized via internal cross-validation to maximize prediction accuracy, ROC curves produced, and then the generalizability tested on a set-aside (RANDOMLY set-aside) training set (33%) of the data using my Weighted ACE optimization given the high imbalance in the two study groups (ASD vs. no ASD) (see Cures vs. Profits, it’s published in there and will prevent nonsense results).

(5) Association studies do not test causality.  Had this study reported a positive association, it would have fallen short under IOM standards, of providing sufficient evidence for causality.  Thus, it cannot be used rule out causality. It’s not testing that hypothesis.

(6) COIs abound: “Jaya K. Rao, MD, MHS, Deputy Editor, reports that she has stock holdings/options in Eli Lilly and Pfizer. Catharine B. Stack, PhD, MS, Deputy Editor for Statistics, reports that she has stock holdings in Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson”. – Thank you John Stone for pointing this out.

Once again, epidemiology is the WRONG TOOL for studying vaccine risk.

Hviid, A et al. 2019. Measles, Mumps, Rubella Vaccination and Autism: A Nationwide Cohort Study. Annals of Internal Medicine. DOI: 10.7326/M18-2101

https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2727726/measles-mumps-rubella-vaccination-autism-nationwide-cohort-study

To read my objective evaluation of past association studies, see

Lyons-Weiler, J. [pre-print]. Systematic Review of Historical Epidemiologic Studies Influencing Public Health Policies on Vaccination [pdf, 2018] [supplementary material] (Review) Updated 10/8/2018, typo “+1” -> “+4” in abstract

 

TO HELP FUND AN OBJECTIVE VAXXED VS. UNVAXXED STUDY CLICK HERE

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What is Driving Preventable Disease Outbreaks?

What is Driving Preventable Disease Outbreaks?

The occurrence of measles diagnoses in various states has lawmakers promoting bills around the country to restrict personal exemptions. As in California, this move will be followed with bills to remove religious exemptions, and then by attempts to sanction or otherwise penalize medical doctors who offer medical exemptions.

In Clark County Washington, an ethnic group that does not vaccinate primarily due to religious exemptions is the seat of the current measles outbreak. So far, 63 cases of measles diagnosis are reported. In Brooklyn, an outbreak among another ethnic/religious group is larger, with about 260 cases reported.

Measles virus transmission is controllable via isolation, and symptoms are manageable via proper hydration and Vitamin A doses.

In the past, measles incidence used to have a cyclic incidence with peaks every 3-4 years. In the recent past, the occurrence of outbreaks also appears to be cyclic. It’s part of the natural ecology of the virus in the human population.

trends-measles-cases

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/cases-outbreaks.html

Further, the MMR vaccine does not prevent measles infection, it prevents measles diagnoses. Gregory Poland and colleagues correctly described the measles paradox in 1994, noting that in highly vaccinated populations, the predominant mode of transmission appears to be from fully vaccinated individuals:

“The apparent paradox is that as measles immunization rates rise to high levels in a population, measles becomes a disease of immunized persons. Because of the failure rate of the vaccine and the unique transmissibility of the measles virus, the currently available measles vaccine, used in a single-dose strategy, is unlikely to completely eliminate measles. The long-term success of a two-dose strategy to eliminate measles remains to be determined.” Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8053748

Yes, asymptomatic transmission is real.

Given that two- and multi-dose MMR vaccination has not prevented measles circulation in the US, the strategy of blaming so-called anti-vaxxers (i.e., the Vaccine Risk Aware) will not stop transmission when exogenous infections come to the US. Adding 2% coverage will not prevent silent infection and silent transmission.

The MMR is America’s only vaccine in use to prevent measles diagnoses. Note that while measles immunization has had an impact on the number of diagnoses (cases), it was a late-comer as a factor in reducing mortality, and that individuals hyping the risk are not being objective.

chart_1-2

Still, the public has been asking or a single-dose measles vaccine for years, to increase consumer choice options. Merck, and their MMR is now under fire for fraud in a whistleblower case in which the scientists allege that they were instructed to spike human samples with rabbit antibodies. They claim the efficacy of the MMR (against the mumps virus) was 18% – that’s against the Jeryl Lynn strain, from the 1960’s, and to secure the contract w/the CDC, Merck defrauded the FDA (and the American public).

Finally, as Del Bigtree pointed out to the Health Service Committee in Olympia Washington yesterday, adults who were vaccinated against measles are no longer immune. Therefore, herd immunity, or so-called “community immunity”, is a myth.-

Source: King5

So what is driving Preventable Disease Outbreaks? Nothing, because they are not preventable with current vaccination technology.

On Wednesday, Feb 27, there will be a hearing on “Confronting a Growing Public Health Threat: Measles Outbreaks in the US”. In reality, there is no “Growing Public Health Threat”. On March 5, there will be a Senate Hearing on the topic of this blog post.

Therefore, be sure to tell your Congressional Reps and Senators that

  • The only thing that is “growing” is the hyperbole and attempts to manipulate the public’s perception of risk of measles as a “new” and “deadly” threat. Pre-vaccine the death rate was 450-500 per 180,000,000 people in the US, and the death rate was 0.1-1/100,000, not 1/1,000 as fear mongers would have you believe.
  • Current outbreaks have not involved primarily people using personal exemptions
  • Outbreaks would occur even if 100% of children were vaccinated
  • Most transmissions in highly vaccinated populations are from the vaccinated, asymptomatic carriers with subclinical infections
  • Natural infection causes superior lifetime immunity
  • Having unvaccinated kids who can develop symptoms is useful- it informs us of transmission chains, and thus the immunocompromised can be better protected
  • Stripping rights away will maximize vaccine injury – some families need personal exemptions.

A 2014 World Health Organization report included the following risks from measles, mumps or rubella Vaccination:

  • Thrombocytopenia: 1 in 30,000
  • Meningitis: 1 to 100 per 100,000 (depending on the strain of mumps)
  • Febrile seizures: 1 in 2,000 to 3,000
  • Acute arthritis: 1 in 10 (rubella)

Some families cannot tolerate this and other vaccines. I’m calling for an end the hype, an end Fear-Based Policies and return to Science-Based Policies that respect ALL of humanity.

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IPAK Letter to Mark Zuckerberg

IPAK has sent Mark Zuckerberg a letter on the importance of respecting individuals’ rights to freedoms guaranteed by the US Constitution and by the Code of Federal Regulations.

zucklettercorrect

JLW_ZUCKERBERG LETTER 2 2019_withPT letter

To co-sign the letter, visit this Petition site: https://www.thepetitionsite.com/882/680/583/ipak-letter-to-mark-zuckerberg/

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A Line Too Far: How Pharma Could Lose BIG in the Bid for Stripping Away Vaccine Exemption Rights

The California experiment of removing religious and philosphical exemptions, and then bullying tactics to deny medical exemptions to mandatory vaccination laws is being replicated in States across the country. These exemptions exist as rights that the people of individual states gave themselves. Here are some reasons why stripping exemptions and leaving mandates without exemptions is a line too far.

#1. Many families need personal/philosophical exemptions to protect their families from vaccine injury.

Medical professionals are willfully mislead by CDC, AAP and other organizations on the reality of vaccine injury. As a scientist who has participated in over 100 research studies of myriad types, including neurodevelopment and immunology, I can say that the denial that vaccine cause both neurodevelopmental disorders and autoimmunity is paper thin. Let me give you an example. Researchers routinely induce human autoimmunity disorder in mice using aluminum hydroxide. Very low doses are needed if a genetic risk to an autoimmune condition already exists. Aluminum hydroxide is present in over 1/2 of the vaccines children receive due to CDC ‘s recommended pediatric schedule.

#2. The expansion of the vaccine schedule and vaccination during pregnancy has already, and will again cause a ten-fold increase in vaccine risk awareness in the voting public.

Vaccine risk awareness was very limited 15 years ago. Now it’s on fire. If exemptions are removed, Pharma (via ACIP and CDC) will expand the vaccine schedule and add more vaccines. This will of course lead to increased numbers of families who need exemptions due to direct, first-hand experience with vaccine injury. When they turn to the State for exemptions, they will learn that they were removed, and that their child must either be home-schooled or vaccine injured. The expansion of the use of vaccines in untested populations, including pregnant women (influenza, TdaP) will compound vaccine injury in children due to cumulative exposure to injected mercury, aluminum, and unsafe epitopes. I estimate at least a ten-fold increase in injury, which will lead to maybe a 50-fold increase in vaccine risk awareness. RIght quick we get to 100% vaccine risk awareness, and there is no return.

#3. Politicians usually do not fare well when they strip rights that people have given themselves.

Families who can no longer enjoy the merits of public education without injuring their child have, and will home school. Schools are struggling to handle the massive numbers of children with neurodevelopmental disorders. The juggernaut of vaccine enforcement is pushing for mandatory vaccination even in children who are home-schooled.

The actual bill removing someone’s existing rights requires a sponsor willing to risk the wrath of the people who need exemptions. Everyone knows you should not come between a mama bear and her cubs.

In short, political support for stripping exemptions will prove to be political death. Pharma donations to both sides of the aisle to buy these bills cannot change the fact of a mathematical rule: 100% vaccination means maximum possible vaccine injury. The public will not tolerate the insanity of mandatory vaccination without personal, philosophical and religious exemptions.

The net result of all of these factors is that Pharma will lose political support for any law enforcing vaccines. In fact, laws mandating vaccine could be repealed if the extent of vaccine injury and concomitant vaccine risk awareness becomes too broad.

So, Pharma, ask yourself: where is a line too far? Where do you stand to lose it all? California was a fluke. Pan had to lie to his colleagues in the California Senate about the use of aborted fetal cells in vaccines to trick them into stripping their constituents’ rights to refuse or to vaccinate selectively. I’m surprised Pan wasn’t sanctioned for that outright lie. But now that Stanley Plotkin has told the world in videotaped testimony that aborted fetal cells are indeed in vaccines, and that he knows that the studies conducted to date cannot be used to rule out that vaccines might cause autism, and the entire vaccine risk aware community has the evidence that aborted fetal cells are used in vaccines, that aluminum is used to induce autoimmunity in animals, that mercury and aluminum synergistic toxicity is real… there will not be another California, and if there is, the people of the next state will remember who stripped them of their rights to choose.

I’m in this area of research to help make artificial approaches to immunity safer with biomarkers and changes to vaccine formulas. I do what I do because I’d like to see medical practices based on valid, not fake, science. I provide evidence in support of vaccine injury backed by science because I’m an ethical scientist. I won’t participate in scientific fraud that leads innocent moms and dads to unwittingly help doctors injure their children.

In my opinion, Pharma has already crossed a line too far. I’m against corporations running America. In my view, to engender any type of legitimacy in the public’s eye, the following reforms must take place:

  • Corporation donations to the CDC Foundation and the NIH Foundations must end. These are government agencies who should answer only to Congress.
  • No one with industry ties should be allowed to serve on ACIP. Every member has conflicts of interest except one (an officer in the US military)
  • Donations to political candidates by Pharma must be banned. We need campaign finance reform. People should not vote for any candidate who accepts money from Pharma.
  • Thimerosal and aluminum must be abandoned. Metal-free vaccines should be given priority for contracts.
  • Unsafe epitopes must be banned. No one should inject proteins that are similar to human proteins into any human being.
  • Vaccine makers should condemn any bill that seeks to strip American citizens of their rights to choose to vaccinate.
  • Pharma, fix your damned vaccines.

James Lyons-Weiler

Allison Park, PA

stripping

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The Psychosis of Vaccine Injury Denial and Hysterisis of Measles Mortality

The Psychosis of Vaccine Injury Denial and Hysterisis of Measles Mortality

To the uninitiated, it must be nice to listen to so-called experts like CHOP’s Paul Offit discuss the science that supports the idea that vaccines are mostly safe – and by mostly they mean by far safe for everyone or nearly everyone. To hear such platitudes being described as “the strongest science shows the vaccines are perfectly safe” must be very reassuring indeed.

Unfortunately, the people who speak these phrases are fully aware that the epidemiological studies that are conducted to determine whether a vaccine has adverse events in the population are just about the weakest type of studies that can be conducted to detect adverse events that happen in a minority of patients.  Ecological correlations (association tests) fall short of testing causality, so positive results can be rejected as “just correlations”.  If that’s the case, negative results do not amount to a critical test of causality – not even close, especially when they are severely underpowered.

In reality, when adverse events happen in the population and weak and malleable and underpowered epidemiologic studies fail to detect an association the status of the inference is “No evidence”. The “no evidence” handle, however, has been conscripted at times: it has used to make the claim of no causality, when in fact, not even a single study to test even for a particular association has been conducted.

It is rather psychotic to see particular types of adverse events happening after vaccination and to deny absolutely that the vaccination was (even in part) responsible simply because no association can be detected in larger association studies is a bit psychotic. Here’s why:

First of all, the studies that have been conducted have never accounted for genetic differences that exist among the population that might put different individuals at risk of serious or moderate adverse events for vaccines. Not everyone can tolerate certain kinds of chemotherapy agents and therefore it would be a bit psychotic to say that a chemotherapy agent is perfectly safe even though we see people get sick and die rapidly on the chemo from the effects of chemo even though the know association has been found of those effects in an epidemiologic study because we know that we have not yet tested those individuals for their tolerance of, let’s say, metals in the chemotherapy agent.

More importantly, though is the question of how senseless and utterly self-defeating vaccine injury and vaccine death denial is.  Imagine a farmer who, once a year, goes to his fields and purposively sows seeds – not of his crops, but of wildflowers.  The next season, when he sees what to him appear to be weeds growing in number, he (1) denies they are caused by him sowing the seeds, and then (2) blames the wildflowers themselves for being there.  His solution?  To sow more wildflower seeds, and wait until “one day” when his genius solution will convince everyone, including the wildflowers, that they are, in fact, not growing.

wildflowers

The Hysterisis of Measles Mortality

In the pre-vaccine era, the population of the US was about 180 million.  According to the best available data, the number of deaths due to measles infection was between 450-500 deaths per year.  Simple math tells us that’s a whole-population mortality rate of 0.00000278 – hardly a cause for alarm.  In fact, the rate is so low that a whole-population cohort study would have a difficult time detecting a significant association between measles infection (which was common) and mortality, especially if, as CDC insists for studying autism, other risk factors for death due to measles infection like poor nutrition or body weight had to be adjusted for as ‘confounders’.

This report from Harvard University in 2001 shows just how little impact the measles vaccination program had on mortality due to measles infection.  In their graph, shown below, the relative contribution of measles – prior to any vaccination program – was negligible.  The measles vaccine is seen here clearly to be a Johnny-come-lately factor in reducing mortality from measles infection.  To act otherwise is a bit psychotic and irrational.

measlesdeaths

From: Cutler and Meara report, Harvard University 2001.

Cochrane and WHO recognize Vitamin A deficiency as a risk factor for measles infection; plenty of evidence exists to support that Vitamin A supplementation can alleviate the seriousness of measles infections.

Hysterisis is the permanent change in a system due to a shift in another part of the system.  When corporate liability was removed for injuries and death in 1986, corporate influence on decision-making by the US CDC, HHS and ACIP become so strong and pervasive that today (1/20/2019), we saw the US Surgeon General getting defensive on whether he was “pro-vaccine” enough.  This shift need not be permanent; indeed, regulatory recapture is very much on the mind for environmentalists (EPA), patients with loved ones killed by fast-tracked medicine (FDA), and, of course, the ever-increasing army of Vaccine Risk Aware Americans (CDC, FDA, NIAID).

cheese

Today, the New York Times ran and OpEd piece filled with the same, tired denialist tropes – deny, deny, deny (“full stop”) that vaccines are toxic or might contribute to autism.  At this point in time, as far as trying to convince the public that vaccines do not cause autism, the New York Times might as well try to convince the citizens of the US that the moon is made of cheese.  Their terminology is outdated – so-called antivaxxers recognize within their own ranks a diversity of phenotypes from absolute refuseniks (who most often have witnessed or experienced serious adverse events first-hand) to sometimes-vaxxers.  Generally speaking, many (but not most) are ex-vaxxers, and all are vaccine risk aware.  None are vaccine injury and death denialists.  Americans find that type of treatment – especially of genetic minorities at highest risk – extremely offensive.  Given the thousands and thousands of recorded eyewitness testimonies given to Polly Tommey and the rest of the Vaxxed crew, one might as well be a holocaust denier.

vra

The reason, vaccine proponents say, that we need to deny that vaccines cause autism (per NY Times, CDC, and other sources) is that people might stop vaccinating, leading to a surge in outbreaks due to vaccine hestitancy.  They never factor in the loss of immunogenicity of the vaccines due to mutations that occur, year after year (now over 30 years) in both the wild-type pathogens and the vaccine-type.  Like the farmer, the solution is more vaccination – spreading more vaccine injury as they go. They do not factor in the reality that live attenuated vaccines lead to subclinical asymptomatic infections – that is, children sitting in the classroom, with no symptoms, spreading mumps, pertussis and yes, measles – and the only thing that unvaccinated kids do is reveal a circulating infection.  These realities are well known, but denied by public health policy experts, who act as though every person carrying measles is the disease – when in reality, measles was universally recognized as a mild infection before the corporate liability was removed.

Clearly, there is an end point to the measles mortality hysteresis, and clearly, these actualizations thus far are insufficient to reconcile public health public policies with reality. However, it seems the financial cost of denialism will be its own undoing.

Minnesota, USA: Vaccine Risk Denial Comes Home to Roost

The type of denial that has taken place is now coming back to bite states in their pocketbook.  Anne Dachel, of Age of Autism, has been chronicling the soaring costs of special education programs in the website Loss of Brain Trust (https://www.lossofbraintrust.com) which now has thousands of media stories showing that society cannot keep up with the burgeoning cost of caring for kids with developmental disorders – and that States are turning their back on the families who need the assistance, after telling them that vaccines do not cause autism, ADHD, dyslexia, language delay and other forms of developmental disorders.

Anne Dachel’s Message

Anne sent a message focused on Minnesota.  She recalled that ten years ago, the statistic of 1 in 32 Somali children with autism in Minnesota shocked the world.  The state had assured the public that vaccines were not a cause of autism.

Now, in January 2019, Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that Minnesota schools are facing ‘crisis level’ in special education funding.  From the Star Tribune article:

“School administrators say the mandate’s growing financial burden is threatening their ability to provide the same for all students.

Soaring special education costs are squeezing the budgets of Minnesota schools — and quickly becoming school districts’ top priority for the new legislative session.

While public schools are required to provide special education services, federal and state governments cover only a portion of the cost. That means Minnesota districts must dig in their budgets, pull out money they would otherwise spend paying teachers or remodeling aging buildings, and collectively fill in a gap that this year is expected to balloon to $724 million.

For many districts, that exercise has become increasingly painful, resulting in teacher layoffs, program cuts and swelling class sizes. School administrators are quick to note that they cannot — and would not — deny special education students their right to an education that meets their needs, no matter the cost. But they say the mandate’s growing financial burden is threatening their ability to provide the same for all students.

“Districts are taking ever-increasing amounts of money out of their general education funds to pay for special education costs,” said Brad Lundell, executive director of Schools for Equity in Education, a group that represents nearly 60 districts across the state. “And that, I think, is reaching a crisis level in the state.”

Many school administrators and advocates say the problem begins with the federal government, which has never followed through on its decades-old pledge to cover 40 percent of special education costs. Currently, the federal government pays for about 8 percent of Minnesota’s $2.2 billion annual special education expenses.

The share of the cost picked up by the state has ticked up in the last decade, rising to about 63 percent this year. But it’s not enough: more Minnesota students are requiring special education services, including a growing number with particularly complex medical, mental health or behavioral needs. The cost to serve them is rising at a faster rate than the overall costs of education, and the federal government isn’t responding in kind. …

“I would say this is probably the No. 1 issue for us from a budgetary standpoint,” said superintendent Wayne Kazmierczak. “From a standpoint of what financially keeps us awake at night, it certainly keeps us awake.” …

All told, Minneapolis has the state’s largest special education funding gap: $55.3 million, or about $1,400 for every student in the district.

Anne’s past articles on Age of Autism from 2008 (here and here) and 2013 are now  prescient warning unheeded. She is justifiably incensed in her message:

“I was in Minneapolis when Somali leaders met with health/school officials for a public forum in 2008. Parents wanted answers. Education officials assured them that vaccines weren’t at fault AND THAT THE SCHOOLS WOULD PROVIDE FOR THEIR KIDS’ NEEDS.

NOW ….SPED costs are just too much to handle. Notice the photo on the story…….lovely little (I’m assuming Somali) girl, BUT NOT ONE WORD OF EXPLANATION AS TO WHY THERE IS THIS ‘GROWING NUMBER’ of disabled students more complex needs. 

STILL…….they have to pretend the only problem is covering the cost–not why it’s happening. It’s something that just can’t continue.”

The acts of pumping pregnant women and infants with neurotoxic metals, and citing studies not designed to test causality as proof of a lack of causality in the face of clear evidence of inappropriate scientific conduct at the highest levels in CDC is best described as perseveration– and the act of doing this same thing over and over and expecting a different result it would seem, is not healthy for children and other things.
In search of confirmation of their bias, denialists also seize on the slightest evidence to further dismiss the notion that vaccines do not cause autism.  For example, they cite MRI studies that have reported that children with autism have significant early structural differences in their brains compared to children without autism – and inappropriately claim that such studies show that vaccines cannot cause autism – in spite of the fact that such studies never considered the effects of vaccines.
However, they must forget that CDC shifted their position on vaccination during pregnancy at the same time they ended that the use of thimerosal-containing vaccines (other than flu vaccines), and that the infants being studied would have received aluminum from their day-of-birth vaccination against Hepatitis B.
To me, the days of vaccine injury and denialism seem numbered.  The ploys advocated by the New York Times Opinion section carry a certain desparation – as do the efforts across the country to strip Americans of their rights to religious, philosophical, and by social pressures such as sanctions, medical exemptions.
Medical doctors in the US who choose to actually practice medicine should not be penalized nor sanctioned for acting in good conscience on these realities.  It is utterly inconceivable that parents who choose to exercise their legal rights to choose to skip some, or all, vaccines for their children would be chastised.  Remember, these events are taking place in 2019 – an era in which HHS conceded in court to Robert F Kennedy, Jr. and to Del Bigtree that they failed to comply with the 1986 law that required them to report, every two years, progress on their attempts to make vaccines safer and to identify those at highest risk of vaccine injury.  (See ICAN’s new epic response calling HHS out for offering palliative responses to urgent and pressing questions).
If society really wants to eradicate measles, the actual efficacy of the measles portion of the MMR must be determined via studies conducted by entities with zero financial interest in the outcome of the study.  Why?  Because Merck’s FDA-submitted efficacy data on mumps is under intense scrutiny due to two whistleblowers who allege they were forced to add rabbit antibodies [See Lawrence Solomon’s HuffPo article].
How can schools enforce mumps vaccination requirements when the vaccine is being litigated as a potential mega-fraud? Why then should we also trust Merck’s data on measles efficacy?  If it as low as it might be suspected, then the number of vaccinated children in school with subclinical infections may in fact vastly outnumber the vaccinated who are infected – making the contributed risk of new transmission chains from the unvaccinated miniscule.  Since measles asymptomatic infection is real, the path to measles eradication would involve in-home testing requirements – and quarantine of individuals who have subclinical infections.  Ironically, the only way a school can learn of the circulating subclinical infection may be to have a few unvaccinated children who can show symptoms.  Otherwise, immunocompromised children could walk into a school teeming with silent, wild-type measles viruses transmission chains among the vaccinated.
James Lyons-Weiler, PhD
Allison Park, PA

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UNIVERSAL DECLARATION OF RIGHTS TO HEALTH

To sign this declaration, put your name or organization’s name as a comment.

We, humanity, recognizing our entitlements to life and procreation provided by our natural origins on this planet, HEREBY ASSERT AND DECLARE OUR RIGHTS TO HEALTH, of which we will tolerate no infringement upon, and will defend by all necessary means:

Our access to unpoisoned air and water;

Our access via trade and commerce to unpoisoned soil;

Our access via trade and commerce to unadulterated food;

Our access to options to maintain and increase our own health by means that we decide, individually or in unions, are best suited for ourselves, and for our progeny;

Our rights to refuse to participate in medical research of any nature with prior, free and informed consent, and to be treated with dignity befitting human beings without exception, and

Our rights to choose, or refuse any “medicine”, including drugs, presumed prophylactics, and psychological exposures, delivered by any means into our bodies and our minds at any phase or stage of life based on our OWN free will.

James Lyons-Weiler, PhD

Allison Park, PA December 15, 2018

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For Health Officials and School Boards: Asymptomatic Measles Infection is Real

For Health Officials and School Boards: Asymptomatic Measles Infection is Real

There was a time when it was openly recognized that vaccinated individuals could become infected with wild-type measles.  These infections are called subclinical infections (aka asymptomatic infections). We don’t talk about that very much anymore. In fact, two days ago I had a conference call with a high-ranking health official at the NYC Health Commission who claimed that it does not happen – specifically, that official stated that subclinical infections do not occur.

Given that this person is so obviously misinformed, I thought I would provide a literature resource for those who might not realize this reality: vaccinated individuals can, and have always, been known to be able to be infected with wild-type measles virus.  Since this is true, the rare non-vaccinated child is not, in a highly vaccinated population, to be the primary source of new transmissions of measles.  Instead, the vaccinated individuals with subclinical infections may be driving new infections in schools. It is therefore illogical, and quite unfair, to blame unvaccinated individuals when infected asymptomatic individuals can go to school unabated.

If we are to have public health policies based on science, this science must be given due consideration; otherwise, we would have public health policies based on something other than science.  In reality, in highly vaccinated populations, measles can spread from a majority of vaccinated, to a minority of unvaccinated people, causing overt disease.  In other words, the unvaccinated merely expose the circulating measles virus, and any child with a compromised immune system may be exposed even in a fully vaccinated population.

Not all full texts are freely available online, but some are. Here are some relevant examples from the primary scientific literature.

#1. Nonclassic measles infections in an immune population exposed to measles during a college bus trip. Helfand RF https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=9829639

“Mild or asymptomatic measles infections are probably very common among measles-immune persons exposed to measles cases and may be the most common manifestation of measles during outbreaks in highly immune populations.”

#2. Current status of measles in Japan. Nakayama T, Zhou J, Fujino M. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12673398

“Measles infection is considered to provide lifelong immunity after an infection and, thus, live measles vaccines also induce longterm immunity. But long-term immunity is now considered to be an effect of natural boosts via subclinical reinfection. Subclinical infection has been demonstrated by sero-conversion, but the isolation or detection of the measles virus genome was rarely demonstrated”… 

“Potential impediments to eradication include: (1) a lack of political will in some industrialized countries, (2) transmission among adults, (3) increasing urbanization and population density, (4) HIV epidemics, (5) waning immunity and the possibility of  transmission from subclinical cases, and (6) risk of unsafe injection.”

#3. Protective titres of measles neutralising antibody. Lee MS et al. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11074481

“…only 1 vaccinee with HI titre #31 mIU/ml experienced typical measles symptoms and 13 vaccinees with HI titres #31 mIU/ml experienced subclinical infection.”

#4. Effect of subclinical infection on maintaining immunity against measles in vaccinated children in West Africa. Whittle HC et al. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=10023894

“Subclinical measles occurred in 39 (45%) of 86 vaccinated children who were exposed to measles and in four (25%) of 16 unvaccinated children…”

#5. Detection of measles virus genome in lymphocytes from asymptomatic healthy children. Sonoda S, Nakayama T. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11536248

“Serological confirmation of subclinical re-infection was obtained by pre-exposure in household-exposed parents who developed asymptomatic secondary immune responseswith a concomitant increase in specific IgG neutralizing test antibodies and haemagglutination inhibition titres…Subclinical infection was confirmed in adulthood.”

“In Japan, measles virus has been circulating and asymptomatic infection has occurred frequently…”

#6. The Clinical Significance of Measles: A Review Walter A. Orenstein Robert T. Perry Neal A. Halsey https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/189/Supplement_1/S4/823958

“People with inapparent subclinical measles virus infections are not known to transmit measles virus to household contacts.”

#7. Detection of measles virus genome in bone-marrow aspirates from adults. Sonoda S, Kitahara M, Nakayama T. http://www.microbiologyresearch.org/docserver/fulltext/jgv/83/10/0832485a.pdf

#8. Waning immunity and subclinical measles infections in England. Glass K, Grenfell BT. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15364464

“A comparison of these cases … shows us that adding subclinical infections to the model also increases the number of clinical cases, as the subclinical infections increase the levels of circulating virus. This feature is more pronounced … because {when) vaccination
levels are higher … subclinical cases make up a greater proportion of the total cases.”

#9. Subclinical measles infection in vaccinated seropositive individuals in arctic Greenland. Pedersen IR https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2815970

“measles can spread from a majority of vaccinated, to a minority of unvaccinated people, causing overt disease.”

#10. Isolation of measles virus from a naturally-immune, asymptomatically re-infected individual. Vardas E, Kreis S https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10443793

#11. Risk analysis for measles reintroduction post global certification of eradication. Dr Ray Sanders. https://www.who.int/immunization/sage/7._Measles_post_eradication_risk_analysis.pdf

#12. Effect of subclinical infection on maintaining immunity against measles in vaccinated children in West Africa.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(98)02364-2/fulltext

#13. Measles eradication: is it in our future? Orenstein WA, Strebel PM, Papania M, Sutter RW, Bellini WJ, Cochi SL. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1446359/

#14. The Re-Emergence of Measles in Developed Countries: Time to Develop the Next-Generation Measles Vaccines?https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3905323/

#15. Modeling the Impact of Subclinical Measles Transmission in Vaccinated Populations with Waning Immunity Mossong, J et al.  https://watermark.silverchair.com/150-11-1238.pdf

“In view of eradication, it is therefore important to investigate whether current vaccines perform well enough to prevent persistence of wild virus in highly or even fully vaccinated populations.”

#16. “Mild or asymptomatic measles infections are probably very common among measles‐immune persons exposed to measles cases, but transmission from asymptomatic cases is likely to be very rare. … However, the potential role of asymptomatic infections in maintaining transmission requires further investigation.”

https://www.who.int/immunization/sage/7._Measles_post_eradication_risk_analysis.pdf

 

CDC Concedes … Quietly. Has The American Academy of Pediatrics Been Told?

CDC Concedes … Quietly.  Has The American Academy of Pediatrics Been Told?

As of 2/2018 … quietly, CDC has conceded important facts about the MMR and MMRV Vaccines.

Please forward this article to all MDs who need to know that, according to the CDC.  The information below is directly from the CDC:

MMRV

Some people should not get this vaccine
Tell your vaccine provider if the person getting the vaccine:
  • Has a history of seizures, or has a parent, brother, or sister with a history of seizures.
  • Has a parent, brother, or sister with a history of immune system problems. 
Some people should not get this vaccine
Tell your vaccine provider if the person getting the vaccine:  
  • Has a parent, brother, or sister with a history of immune system problems.
  • Has gotten any other vaccines in the past 4 weeks. Live vaccines given too close together might not work as well

Severe events have very rarely been reported following MMR vaccination, and might also happen after MMRV. These include:

  • Deafness
  • Long-term seizures, coma, lowered consciousness
  • Brain damage

(SEE FOR COMPARISON VIA THE WAYBACK MACHINE, OLD PAGE DEC 2017)

That’s the CDC, folks.  Not so-called “anti-vaccine” nut jobs.

Of course, it takes independent research to push forward objectivity.  The writing is on the wall; epidemiology has failed us as a viable option for vaccine safety science.

Help us with your monthly donation to IPAK.

 

ACUTE FLACCID PARALYSIS IS (MOST OFTEN) GUILLAIN BARRE SYNDROME

The US press has been pushing a view of acute flaccid paralysis as a mysterious condition of unknown etiology (unknown cause).  Checking the scientific literature, however, tells us that AFP is most often Guillain Barre Syndrome, a condition that appears on the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program as a “Table Condition” – i.e., one that the US HHS has no defense against when parents file in the NVICP for compensation for GBS as a vaccine injury in their children.

Here are some quotes from the abstracts of a collection of studies on AFP:

“Within the last few years, an enterovirus D68 outbreak has been associated with cases of acute flaccid paralysis in children, and emerging Zika virus infection has been concurrent with cases of acute flaccid paralysis due to Guillain-Barré syndrome, although cases of myelitis have also been reported.”

“Cases (of AFP) exhibited heterogeneous paralysis patterns from 1- to 4-limb involvement, but all definite cases had longitudinal spinal gray matter lesions on magnetic resonance imaging (median, 20 spinal segments). Cerebrospinal fluid pleocytosis was observed in 50 of 59 cases (85%), and 8 of 29 (28%) were positive for antiganglioside antibodies, as frequently observed in Guillain-Barré syndrome.”

“The syndrome of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) is a common medical emergency in children. In the era of poliomyelitis eradication, the common causes of AFP include Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), transverse myelitis and traumatic neuritis.”

“One-hundred thirty-nine children aged <15 years were reported to the Center for Diseases Control with AFP. In 138 (99%) stool samples no poliovirus was isolated. None of the patients was diagnosed as having acute poliomyelitis or polio-compatible paralysis. Guillain-Barré syndrome was the most frequent final diagnosis (79 cases) followed by Transverse Myelitis (7 cases) and Encephalitis (6 cases).”

The major clinical diagnoses associated with AFP were Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS, 40%) and encephalomyelitis/myelitis (13%).”

Guillain-Barré syndrome represented more than half of the reported cases (of AFP) (N = 2611, 52.5%), followed by traumatic neuritis (N = 715, 14.4%), and other CNS infections (N = 292, 5.9%).”

Guillain-Barré syndrome represented more than half of the reported cases (of  AFP) (N = 2611, 52.5%), followed by traumatic neuritis (N = 715, 14.4%), and other CNS infections (N = 292, 5.9%).

“Of these (cases of AFP), nineteen (45%) cases were classified as Guillain-Barré syndrome on both registries.”

“In 44.5% of cases (of AFP) the definite diagnosis was Guillain Barrè syndrome.”

Guillain-Barre syndrome dominated among non-polio AFP (39.3% of cases); more rare were traumatic neuritis (27.9% of cases), transient monoparalysis (12.1%), myelitis (7.6%).”

“A neurological cause was identified in 67.5% of cases (of AFP), of which the most common was Guillain-Barre syndromee (42%), followed by transverse myelitis (15%)”

The major clinical diagnosis associated with AFP were Guillain-Barre syndrome (30.2%), central nervous system infection (16.2%), transverse myelitis (10.6%) non-polio enterovirus infection (6.2%), and hypokalaemic paralysis (5.2%).”

“Among (AFP cases), Guillain-Barré syndrome (118 cases, 41.5% of all non-polio AFP cases), traumatic neuritis (63 cases, 22.2%), transient monoparesis of limb (35 cases, 12.3%), myelitis (26 cases, 9.2%) were registered most frequently.

“To describe the epidemiology and causes of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) in Australian children, and the clinical features of the two most common causes of AFP, Guillain-Barré syndrome and transverse myelitis.”

The most common causes of AFP were Guillain-Barré syndrome in 67 (47%) and transverse myelitis in 27 (19%)”

Guillain-Barré syndrome was the commonest single cause of AFP.”

“…acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) attributed to a peripheral demyelinating process (Guillain-Barré Syndrome [GBS]), or to an anterior myelitis.”

Additional Information:

How to file your vaccine injury in VAERS

How to file a case in the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program

AFP IS GBS ABSTRACTS <<< download the abstracts

 

What the Allegheny County Board of Health Did Was Offensive – and Perhaps Illegal

What the Allegheny County Board of Health Did Was Offensive – and Perhaps Illegal

YOU MAY RECALL last month when Allegheny County Board of Health members acted on a motion to vote to approve a recommendation for the HPV vaccine for “all children”.  (You can read about the fiasco here).  After some research, it appeared to Allegheny County Council Member Sue Means, who was present at the meeting, that the Board of Health did not act in good faith.  Instead, it appear they may have had at least one private meeting to discuss how to slip this recommendation past the public – including the County Council – without allowing sufficient public comment and avoiding a County Council vote.  The recommendation will be perceived by school nurses and then the parents as a mandate – which it is not, as it was a Non-Binding Resolution. In fact, there is reason to believe they had private discussions with certain members of the public on how to get this vote past the public out of the purview of the Allegheny County Council’s oversight.

The Allegheny County Board of Health failed to include “HPV Vaccine” on the agenda for the meeting, instead, they slipped the HPV action into the topic “Vaccine Update”.  According to the people who did comment “Vaccine Update”, in the limited three minutes, to a person who attended, had we known there was going to be vote on a recommendation, we would have updated, edited and perhaps extended our comments.  The three-minute limit for comments is to be used judiciously, and The Public had in the past requested extended time to discuss these important matters.  In fact, in my written comments handed to the Allegheny County Board of Health, I had requested unlimited comment time if they held a vote on HPV vaccine.  I would have made that request orally if they had HPV Vaccine Recommendation on the Agenda.  Other Agenda items with a “VOTE” were clearly marked as such on the Agenda.  There was no such mark on the Agenda on November 7, 2018.

To make matters worse, in a request for clarification on procedure, in the meeting of Novemeber 7th, I was shouted down – and then threatened with forcible removal –  by the Chairman of the Allegheny County Board of Health and the Vice Chair who both motioned for a guard to remove me from the courtroom.  All over my request for clarification on their procedures (I requested a point of order clarification).

On November 20, members of the public then stood before the Allegheny County Council Meeting at which Council member Sue Means berated the Alleghency County Board of Health for subterfuge – and the County Council was visibly upset.

Here is the video of Sue Means informing the County Council of the offensive – and potentially illegal – actions taken by the Allegheny County Board of Health.

 

 

At this time, The Public is keeping all of our options open.

JLW

Allison Park, PA 15101

Update: We are creating Citizens for Health Policy Transparency – please sign up w/a donation:

https://www.gofundme.com/citizens-for-health-policy-transparency

citizens

Medical Freedom Tags for Vaccine Risk: Normalizing Mercury and Aluminum Sensitivity Awareness

Medical Freedom Tags for Vaccine Risk: Normalizing Mercury and Aluminum Sensitivity Awareness

IN PERHAPS THE LEAST CONTROVERSIAL MOVE YET TO EXPRESS THEIR MEDICAL INFORMED CHOICES, people around the country have added medical alert tags and bracelets to their bling to make anyone attending to their medical needs aware that they are, say, allergic to pencillin.

Examples include:

CELIAC – NO GLUTEN

DRUG ALLERGY – NO PENICILLIN

FOOD ALLERGY – PEANUTS

AUTISM – MAY NOT RESPOND/COMPLY

VON WILLEBRAND – BLEEDING RISK

So, how about

MERCURY SENSITIVE – NO VACCINES

ALUMINUM ALLERGY – NO VACCINES

SEIZURE RISK – NO VACCINES

PATIENT CHOICE – NO VACCINES

To me, this seems like a logical and perhaps necessary step for anyone who is concerned that they might be vaccinated while unconcious, or that their child may be vaccinated.

Why?  Well, the first reason is freedom of choice, which is the law.  The second reason is that some people are, in fact, hypersensitive to mercury, and some are allergic to aluminum.  Why pediatricians do not perform an aluminum patch test for allergy prior to injecting aluminum into their patients is a baffling mystery.

Medical ID bracelets are obvious, but tags can be worn around the neck – and EMTs, ER personnel and others are trained to check for tags to help assess a person’s possible medical condition.  A person laying unconcious may be a diabetic coma, for example.

I don’t have any endorsements to make for providers, but here are some that I found that offer various options:

https://www.laurenshope.com/chronic-medical-conditions-medical-id-jewelry-for-safety

https://www.thingsremembered.com/7-5-inch-medical-id-bracelet/product/737988

https://www.stickyj.com/product/petite-stainless-steel-medical-alert-charm-cr2391

If you have a favorite source or type of bling, or if you think this is a good, or bad idea, feel free to post in the comments.

JLW

Allison Park, PA

After Threatening Forcible Removal of the Public from the Allegheny County Courthouse, a Deaf, Blind, and Dumb Allegheny County Board of Health Votes for a Non-Binding HPV Vaccine Recommendation

After Threatening Forcible Removal of the Public from the Allegheny County Courthouse, a Deaf, Blind, and Dumb Allegheny County Board of Health Votes for a Non-Binding HPV Vaccine Recommendation

TODAY was another kangaroo session in the Allegheny County Board of Health in a meeting in which parents informed the Board of Health on the realities of the risk of widespread HPV vaccination. On … but not on… the agenda today was and “Vaccines”. I had tried to register for public comment on both “Vaccines” and “HPV Vaccine”, but was misinformed by Dr. Karen Hacker’s office that “HPV Vaccine” and “Vaccines” were the same agenda item.

During the public comment period, numerous parents stepped up to the microphone for their three minute opporunity to inform the Allegheny County Board of Health of both the realties of risk associated with HPV vaccination in terms of human morbidity and mortality, such as the death of Chris Tarsell, teens who had been paralyzed and who are now dead.

Many parents correctly schooled the Allegheny County Board of Health that no HPV vaccine safety study used a saline placebo; that the vaccine was rushed to market under FDA’s fast-track mechanism; that the number of HPV-related deaths in the US continues to rise as government pushes the vaccine on more people. There was at least one parent there who was afraid to speak for fear of employment consequences. I provided public comments that informed Allegheny County Board of Health of the sorry state of HPV vaccine safety science (my bullet point comments provided in italics below). The public schooled the Allegheny County Board of Health on the realities that Japan refused to recommend the HPV vaccine for their citizens.

About an hour earlier, I had pulled into a parking lot across the street from the Allegheny County Court House, a box of 20 books under my arm. I spotted the local CBS news station KDKA van and a KDKA car. The occupants of both cars were given copies of “HPV Vaccine On Trial” before I entered the courthouse. I had even sent every member of the Allegheny County Board of Health their own copies of “HPV Vaccine on Trial” with assurance from the USPS that they would arrive by noon – today.

ACHCBOOKS

What transpired in the Courthouse was an outrageous abuse of power. The Allegheny County Board of Health had previously considered mandating the HPV Vaccine for school attendence in Allegheny County – but due to a large showing of parents who were much, much more informed that the medical doctors who had offered public comment, and due to my questioning on whether their pending vote required open public comment period – they had tabled the issue to committee. They even tried to sneak in a vote on a recommendation – without open public comments – and were called out on that, too.

But things were different this time.

Not a single member of the public stood up and spoke in favor of the HPV vaccine.

The Board heard an inaccurate report from Dr. Kristen Mertz, who claimed, among other things, that while moral and philosophical exemptions rates are showing a slight increase in Allegheny County, it is not as bad in Allegheny County as it is in California (there are no moral and philosophical exemptions allowed in California). Mertz reported that HPV vaccine is not required for school attendence, and on HPV vaccine reporting rates by nurses in schools… yes, you read that correctly, the Allegheny County Board of Health has been collecting vaccination statistics on students for a non-mandated vaccine – from school employees (nurses) – using our taxpayer dollars and time to track the uptake of a 100% optional vaccine. Why is anyone tracking that particular medical option? What about rates of autism, ADHD, allergey, rheumatoid arthritis, anxiety, depression, teen suicides, demyelinating disorders, POTS, PANS,, MMF, ASIA and a slew of other conditions that might be caused by aluminum-containing vaccines?

Suddenly, off Agenda, the Board then began discussions about a motion to make a recommendation for HPV vaccination.

The chair, Lee Harrison, handed out a packet and called for a motion

Harrison: “You also have in your packet a resolution on HPV Vaccine, I’m not going to read the entire thing, I’m just going to read the bottom line, which says “Now, therefore be it resolved hereby recommends that any child, in any county, unless otherwise counseled by their physician, receive the HPV vaccine according to the following ACIP recommendation (motioning for a guard to come into the court room)

So when folks are ready, um…

Caroline, did you join in (to the telephone…)

So, Board member Caroline Mitchell has also joined me, thanks for calling in…”

(One Board member speaking, away from the microphone, about having time to read the motion)…

Harrison: “So when folks are ready…”

Harrison: “If I could hear a motion, that would be great…”

(Karen Hacker inaudibly mouthing words to another Board member to the left of Harrison, away from the mic…)

Harrison: “Yeah, right, so we talked about this before, this is not a binding resolution, this is a (waving his hand) recommendation of the board, this is non-binding, this is not a regulation… this is just a resolution from the board… we talked about a recommendation…”

Other board member: (inaudible)

Harrison:“Well, I, I…” (interrupted by The Public)

The Public: “Could you turn your mic up please, I can’t hear you”.

Other board member: “Sorry” (moves microphone into place)

Harrison:The idea is to, is to vote on it as a resolution of the Board of Health.”

Other board member: “Oh, that’s easy.”

Other board member “I’d like to proposal a resolution… to… accept… this (inaudible).”

Harrison: “Second?”

Someone: “Yes, I second.”

The Public: “Point of order question?”

Harrison: “I’m sorry, this is not an interactive session”

Hacker (speaking at the the same time, to The Public: (inaudible)

Harrison (turning to the other board member): “Any… other…”

The Public: “I’m sorry, a point of order question?”

Hacker (motioning to the guard, inaudible)

ABUSEOFPOWER
Allegheny County Board of Health Member Karen Hacker motions to the guard to come into the courtroom at the moment The Public requested information on a point of order on the process.

Harrison: (speaking, inaudible)

The Public: “I have a question on a point of order, please.”

Hacker: “This is not an open session, please sit down (motioning toward the guard) or we will have you removed.”

The Public: “You are pre-judging the question that I have on a point of order”.

Hacker: “This is not a question and answer period.”

The Public: “Is the public not entitled to…”

Hacker: “This is not a question and answer period.”

The Public: “Is the public not entitled to unlim…”

Hacker: “This is not a question and answer period.”

The Public: “Is the public allowed to comment, with unlimited time, on motions put to vote by the Board?”

Hacker: This is not a question and answer period.”

Harrison: “Please sit down…”

Hacker: “Please sit down, or we will have to ask you to leave.”

Harrison: (Addressing the other board member): “Any other comments? Additional
comments before we vote?”

Harrison: Ok…” (Proceeds with the vote) (see video below my comments).

Ignoring all of the information provided by the parents, and provided by a scientist (read below), the motion passed, and the Allegheny County Board of Health refused to hear public comment about a vote on a non-agenda item that had obviously been prepared beforehand, presumable by Dr. Harrison, who provided the rest of the board with “the packet”.

Yes, you have it right. The Allegheny County Board of Health had to threaten The Public with physical removal from the Allegheny Courthouse for its desire to discuss HPV Vaccine benefits and risks before they passed a non-binding resolution that the Allegheny County Board of Health recommends the HPV vaccine.

My arrest would have been binding. Over discussion of a resolutions for a recommendation that is non-binding. Watch for the next chapter in the continuing saga of how The Allegheny County Board of Health is building public trust in the HPV vaccine.

FULL COMMENTS OF DR. JAMES LYONS-WEILER, PHD

  • When the original Gardasil vaccine (Gardisil-4) was being tested, there was no existing HPV vaccine.
  • Therefore, there should have been saline placebo studIES for safety.
  • Instead, the prospective safety trial used Amorphous Aluminum HYDROXYPHOSPHATE SULFATE as a placebo.
  • It has recently come to light that the one true safety study [WHICH ALSO DID NOT HAVE SALINE PLACEBO AND WAS WAS WOEFULLY UNDERPOWERED] INCLUDING THE 11-12 YEAR OLD TARGET AGE GROUP used ½ of the Aluminum-CONTAINING ADJUVANT in the vaccine formulation compared to the product THEN brought to market for teen girls.
  • In the Gardasil-9 trials, the placebo used was Gardasil-4, meaning the current HPV vaccine has MORE THAN 4 times the aluminum-CONTAINING ADJUVANT used in the only PURPORTED CONTROLLED TRIAL FOR THE TARGET 11-12YO AGE GROUP trial, and no HPV vaccine on the market in the US has been tested against a valid placebo.
  • In filings to the FDA (VRBPAC Background Document, Tables 17 and 18), Merck reported studies that found NEGATIVE EFFICACY of HPV vaccination for women over 26 – RELATED TO HPV INFECTION. This means INCREASED risk of CIN 2+ if they had an existing HPV infection.
  • Gardasil-9 targets the 9 most prevalent types of HPV that cause neoplasms in humans.
  • There are >100 other HPVs that the vaccine does not clear; at least 12-18 TYPES ARE CURRENTLY THOUGHT TO BE ONCOGENIC.
  • Many studies, including the CDC’s own data, show increases in non-vaccine targeted types following HPV vaccination.
  • Rarer viruses are rare because they are more virulent (higher morbidity and mortality)
  • This means that rarer, potentially more lethal HPV types can be expected to increase and spread throughout the population, possibility leading to INCREASED rates of HPV-related cancers.
  • Studies that fail to detect type replacement do so as a result of their study design or design of analysis, not because type replacement does not occur.
  • We are experiencing a CRISIS in vaccine safety science in general.
  • We have an epidemic of HPV-vaccine related serious adverse events reporting, so much so that annual HPV vaccine-related serious adverse events outnumber the total number of all serious adverse events reported for all other vaccines combined.
  • Some countries, like Japan, look at the entire picture and have refused to recommend HPV vaccine for their population.
  • Before any vote on any mandate of HPV or any other vaccine, I would like to reserve an unlimited amount of time AS ALLOWED UNDER THE LAW to discuss the actual state of knowledge of the safety and efficacy of this vaccine.
  • MEDICAL DOCTORS TELL THEIR PATIENTS THAT HPV VACCINE PROTECTS THEM FROM HPV INFECTION. THIS IS NOT TRUE. THE US NOW HAS THE HIGHEST RATE OF VENEREAL DISEASE INFECTION AMONG INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES.
  • Allegheny County Board of Health and MEDICAL DOCTORS EVERYWHERE should be telling people that safe sex practices can protect against HPV infection, and they should be pushing Pap smear screening, which is a curative diagnostic.

Is NYU’s Art Caplan Lying? Childen Have the Right to Be Free From Vaccine Injury

Not every child who receives a vaccine experiences vaccine injury.

But some do.

Kids have a right to be healthy.

Vaccine can harm some kids.

Because not all children are protected from harm, they are entitled to equal protection under the law.

Vaccine mandates without exemptions will find and injure every child who will be injured.

Vaccine mandates with expemptions allow those who want to vaccinate their child and accept the risk to do so, while respecting the right to informed consent – also provided for
by law.

A few vocal but woefully incorrect voices have started calling for  revocation of the rights to exemptions. These include, notably, Art Caplan, a medical ethicist at NYU.

caplan

He wants the government to intercede in a family matter on the decision of choice for a medical procedure – even when there is no immediate risk – no imminenent threat.

And he is morally and ethically wrong.

In fact, there is reason to believe he is lying about this entire matter.

In 2017, he stated that because “we” (I presume he meant the small cadre of highly vocal anti-choice vaccine risk denialists presenting at the meeting) … because “we” are at “war” with anti-vaxxers (correction: the vaccine risk aware), it’s ok to mislead them.

So, what part of Caplan’s video argument here is misleading?

The public trust is based on respect. Anyone who argues for 100% vaccination coverage shows no respect for the mathematical fact that some will be injured-and killed.

Caplan mentions what he calls a “Canard” – the link between vaccines and autism.

Art thinks that the absence of a link between vaccines and and autism is the same as an absence of a link between Coca-Cola and autism:

“You can’t prove that Coca-Cola doesn’t cause autism, either… You’re in a debate [chuckle] and, you know, you gotta fight unfair.”

Art, there are not thousands and thousands of parents saying that their child regressed after drinking Coca-Cola.  And you likely know why the correlation studies cited by CDC and AAP do not show a causal connection between vaccines and autism, or, at least you should.

Here, in case you don’t, I did a systematic review:

Lyons-Weiler, J. [pre-print]. Systematic Review of Historical Epidemiologic Studies Influencing Public Health Policies on Vaccination [pdf, 2018] [supplementary material] (Review)

Art now claims that we know that vaccines do not cause autism because we are now getting to the point where we can diagnose autism before infants get vaccines.

Really?

When would that be, Art?

Infants receive vaccines on Day 1 of Life – with 250 mcg of aluminum in the Hepatitis B.
Fetuses receive unknown amounts of aluminum and unknown amount of mercury when mother accept the TDaP vaccine during pregancy – every pregnancy, every time against all medical sense – and when pregnant mothers accept influenza vaccines that contain thimerosal – which is 50% ethyl mercury by weight.  And CDC stupidly advised that flu shots should be preferentially given to pregnant women.  Why?  Was that to make autism appear “genetic”?

So, Art, exactly when is “before they are vaccinated”? And no, Art, the DSM-V manual clearly requires that children be beyond the age of 2 for a diagnosis of autism. I suppose you think it’s ok just to make stuff up to try to win your “war”?

For what, 100% vaccine coverage?

100% vaccine coverage = 100% vaccine injury. Think about that.  You’ve declared war on the families who have take the hit for “the common good”.

I’ve made it clear that above 85% vaccination coverage, the vaccinated asymptomatic infected outnumber the symptomatic unvaccinated infected, who stay home.

The vaccine zealots can’t see that writing on the wall. 100% vaccine coverage = 100% vaccine injury because such a program will find, and maim or injure, every susceptible child.  It’s just math.

I agree with Caplan that kids have a right to be healthy.

But I also say that the law of the land right now in 49 out of 50 states is the way that it is because our predecessors saw vaccine injury, and they know that parents won’t vaccinate again after encephalopathy, seizures or death of a child in their family following vaccination.

Kids DO have a right to be healthy, and that includes those who would be injured by vaccines.

Art, get a clue: Childen Have the Right to Be Free From Vaccine Injury.

Where are the memorials to those individuals who are vaccine injured or killed?  No where, thanks to vaccine risk denialism and vaccine injury denialism.

Was Caplan also misleading the public when he recently compared the vaccine risk aware to pipe bombers?  In an email, when called out on it, Caplan told me he meant what he said.

Here’s what some of the parents of children with vaccine injury have said about Art Caplan:

“Art Caplan is a disgrace.”

I think a true medical ethicist would insist that Dr. William Thompson be allowed to tell what he knows to Congress and that the CDC permit his testimony in civil proceedings.
I think that a true medical ethicist would insist that the department of justice bring Poul Thorsen back to the US to face justice.
I think that a true medical ethicist would demand that the complete Zimmerman testimony be turned over to the petitioner attorney’s in the Omnibus Autism Proceedings.
A true medical ethicist would oppose obstruction of justice and would speak out against it. Not sit on his hands and endlessly repeat pharmaceutical industry propaganda about how dangerous people who want vaccine safety are.
A true medical ethicist would insist that those petitioning for compensation and justice be afforded due process, fundamental fairness and not have their civil rights violated.
A true medical ethicist would call for the end of discrimination against the vaccine injured, even the vaccine injured with an autism diagnosis.
A true medical ethicist would raise alarms over the autism epidemic, acknowledge that environmental factors must be driving it and vociferously advocate for independent research and support for affected children and families.
A true medical ethicist would denounce Pharma for its’ role in killing more Americans with opioids in each of the past two years than were lost in the entire Vietnam War.
Where is Arthur Kaplan on that issue?
Silence.
A true medical ethicist wouldn’t cavort with Paul Offit, a man who’s vote on the ACIP established a market for a vaccine he invented and who was cited by Congress for conflicts of interest in doing so. A man who shouted obscenities at the parents of children with autism.
A true medical ethicist would applaud the courage and integrity of researchers engaged in authentic scientific inquiry.
However, an industry spokesman would not.
Kaplan has dishonored his profession, his university and himself. He should act in the manner that his job title suggests.

We need to move beyond these lying, misleading zealots. We need to reveal their financial conflicts of interest.

In fact, I am of the opinion that NYU needs new leadership in medical ethics.

To send a complaint to NYU, send an email “To Whom It May Concern” requesting Art Caplan’s financial disclosures with respect to vaccines, vaccine manufacturers, and Not-For-Profits funded by vaccine manufacturers to

provost@nyu.edu

Tell the Provost YOUR family’s vaccine injury truth, and request the info on Caplan.

Let’s see what NYU thinks about Caplan declaring war on families whose kids took one for the team and his push to injure more kids needlessly.  I will publish an apology from Caplan to the families of the children and young adults injured and killed by vaccines.  He has my email address.

James Lyons-Weiler, PhD

November 1, 2018

Allison Park, PA 15101

 

When Vaccine Refusal is Not Unethical

When Vaccine Refusal is Not Unethical

THERE IS AN ENTRENCHED HERD MENTALITY AND GROUPTHINK phenomenon on the issue of the morality of vaccination refusal by those who scratch the surface of the issue that requires a specific constellation of embedded arbitrary values that both are not founded on basic logic and that also run counter to the norms and mores of relative value systems as they apply to individual vs. societal rights. In all of my writings to date, I have explored many issues, from natural vs. artificial herd immunity to miscalculations on the dose toxicity of aluminum by the US FDA. I now will tackle the unscrutinized presumption made by the herd that vaccinating one’s child is necessary and therefore should be a mandated moral duty of every parent.

The Medically Ineligible

First, let’s recall that “every parent” is an induction, which we disallow as an unwarranted generalization. That is to say, there must be some children in the population who cannot accept vaccines for medical reasons; the CDC’s Vaccine Information Statements and the vaccine product inserts and FDA labeling are filled with contraindications – which do parents little good if they are given after the administration of vaccines, counter to law.

Vaccine Risk Denialism

The portion of the population is likely much larger than is generally admitted, in large part due to the entrenchment of the idea that full and complete vaccination is always the goal for every vaccine, regardless of its true risk profile, not due to an objective assessment of the full profile of risks, or in the view of accurate knowledge of the percentage of individuals who are at risk of serious adverse events. Instead the view that complete vaccination coverage is the universal goal for every vaccine is compelled by the combined effects of a fear that vaccine risk awareness might lead to a dangerous drop in vaccination coverage, and a strategic overemphasis of the value of vaccination to society both in terms of the role of vaccines in decreasing the rates of morbidity and mortality from the spread of infection disease.

The specific strategic techniques employed include (a) exaggeration of the risks of active transmission of agents of infectious disease (measles deaths almost never occur in western countries, so cite death rates from measles outbreaks in Africa); (b) exaggeration of benefit of vaccination coverage to individuals in the population for which coverage adds no individual benefit (e.g., pertussis has virtually no individual risk to individuals outside of infancy).

The VRA Blow Back Effect

In reality, understatement of the risks of vaccination and the inducement of vaccination based on false premises of individual benefit is mathematically expected to lead to increased vaccine uptake; this will then lead inevitably to realization of the actual levels of morbidity and mortality due to vaccination, leading to justified activism by families who have family members who are injured or killed. These families are socially connected to families whose members may not be at the same risk level when the basis of that risk is due to genetics, but the vaccine injured families often feel they have a duty to warn others about the potential risks because they feel, rightly so, misled by elements of society, including the CDC, ACIP, the FDA, the AAP, the AMA, and their former medical doctors for failing to provide them with any means of detecting their familial or specific risk (e.g., “If I had only known“; “No one told me of the risk“).

This duty to warn of course is not sufficiently informed by the potential tools of science that could provide indicators (biomarkers such as pre-existing Th2/Th1 skew, family history or autoimmunity) and the medical community has blithely turned their backs on such potential indicators as not real without doing sufficient studies of how to use combined indicators of risk to predict, prior to vaccination, who might be at risk of serious adverse events.

Deconstructing “Vaccines Are (Always) a Public Good”

There is a widespread belief that the benefits of vaccination – any vaccination – is of such high benefit to society in terms of reduction of risk of morbidity and mortality that any individual who refuses vaccination for themselves or others are violating a moral code of the public good. In most cases, where a universal public good actually exists, society passes laws, with penalties for violating those laws. We all drive on the same side of the road, for example, and we all agree to interpret red lights as a command to not drive through an intersection.

For the last 100 years, in spite of rulings that have been interpreted as giving the rights of governments to mandate vaccination upon the population (of individuals), nearly all of society also saw the wisdom of providing exemption to those mandates. Those exemptions not only allow the vaccination program to remain Constitutional, by allowing people whose personal religious or moral codes compel them to refuse vaccination against other reasons to do so; they also provide a safety valve within which families who are a genetic risk of vaccine injury can escape the system and reduce the individual risk of vaccine injury. Vaccine mandate proponents and those who would take away the rights to exemptions fail on moral grounds because (a) they must deny that vaccine injury and deaths occur to minimize the immorality of compulsory vaccine injury for some, (b) in doing so, they stymie the ability of society to celebrate those whose children were injured as a result of the parents’ attempts to “do the right thing” and vaccinate their children in the first place, (c) they have prevented research on curative treatments of common childhood infections, (d) they have thwarted the correct perception that vaccines must be made safer, and the means of identifying those most susceptible to injury as mandated in the 1986 National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act, (e) they have prevented the development of means of detecting ongoing vaccine injury, and (f) they have prevented the development of emergency medical care to minimize the neurological and immunological effects of vaccine injury, which can be debilitating.

In 2016, the hashtag #wedid swept through the vaccine risk aware community, driving home the simple message: “you should celebrate our sacrifice, instead, you castigate and hate and marginalize the very heroes you are calling upon in your quest for 100% vaccination coverage”. Social media now allows the rapid dissemination of knowledge of deaths due to vaccination, a practice I have participated in because absent the knowledge of mortality due to vaccination, the amplified perception of high risk of mortality due to mild childhood diseases unfairly pits families at risk of vaccine injury against an non-existent risk.

The assumption that herd immunity is a justification for placing vaccination in the same category as “public good” is questionable under circumstances in which the cost of vaccination to society are not fully measured. In fact, Harvard-Pilgrim released the statistics on the rate at which an automated vaccine injury detection system reported vaccine adverse events compared to the passive VAERS reporting system and found that 99% of vaccine adverse events were not detected and reported by medical practitioners. Doctors are required by law to report all vaccine adverse events, but there are no penalties to them for failing to do so.

While the increase burden of infectious disease on low-income families existed in the late 19th and early 20th Century, universal modern healthcare means that less disparity in access to medical care and knowledge of sanitation and hydration practice that prevent deaths of measles and other infections are widespread.

Some have characterized the choice to not vaccinate as the actions of a parent selfishly only considers the interest of their child at the increased risk to others in the population. In my experience of speaking with hundreds of such so-called “self-interested” agents, I have seen them acting in the same way a parent might act if the saw a car coming at them in their lane; they might break the law in the interest of saving their own child by driving in the wrong lane themselves in hopes of avoiding a head-on collision, placing other travelers and themselves at increased risk. Or they might break the norm of driving on the curb, taking the risk of running into debris, or perhaps a stalled car. Rather than characterize them as agents who arbitrarily decide to drive in the wrong lane, vaccine risk aware parents who choose to not vaccinate should be seen as curbing to reduce the specific risk.

In so doing, such families are also reducing the burden of the cost of vaccine injury to society in terms that cannot be adequately measured because of the entrenched vaccine risk denialism that prevent the accounting of costs for arthritis, seizures, deaths, ADHD, autism, allergies and the many autoimmune disorders that are routinely induced using animal models.

By contrast, vaccine risk and injury denialism drive up the rate of chronic illness, neurodevelopmental disorders, psychiatric conditions, autoimmune disorders, neurodegenerative disorders, and, quite possibly, the cost of criminal activities. Readers entrenched in the vaccine risk denialism will read that last sentence as “vaccines are responsible for all cases of neurodevelopmental disorders, psychiatric conditions, autoimmune disorders, neurodegenerative disorders, and all criminal activities”, which, of course, is a mis-read of the sentence. In reality, the actual total cost of mass vaccination programs to society is unknown due to the entrenched vaccine risk denialism, which leads to, among other things, a refusal of the NIH to prioritize extra-mural funding for the study of safe ways for the removal of thimerosal-derived organic mercury and vaccine-derived aluminum from the brains of individuals who happen to tend to accumulate these and other toxins (aka, the Canaries).

No “Free Ride”

In reality, none of the hundreds of VRA Americans that I know count the value of the herd immunity via the absence of circulating measles, etc. among their reasons to avoid vaccines. They are aware of the arguments for herd immunity but being skeptical they see holes in the argument. They realize that in order to achieve real herd immunity, lasting immunity is necessary. Most adults over the age of 26 who received mumps vaccination do not realize that they likely are not immune to mumps infection due to combination of the limitations of the immunity conferred by the MMR, and the fact that the wild-type mumps has now evolved away from the vaccine-type mumps virus.

The argument that non-vaccinating families are somehow “free-riding” on herd immunity emphasizes their role as a potential reservoir or source of transmission of mild childhood infections. However, children of families who do not vaccinate also tend to home-school, and those who do not also keep their kids from school if they show signs of fever. The impact of the rule of keeping your sick child home on the rates of transmission of childhood diseases must be very large.

“The Vaccinated Vulnerable” aka “The Asymptomatic Carriers Reservoir”

In these infections, another group is hardly ever considered, and they appear to now vastly outnumber the unvaccinated. Unlike the unvaccinated, these individuals can acquire an infection but remain largely asymptomatic, or present only non-specific symptoms insufficient to keep them from school. These individuals are the asymptomatic individuals who, because they vastly outnumber the unvaccinated, represent the largest “threat” and the most likely reservoir of mumps virus and the pertussis bacterium. They have been called “The Vaccinated Vulnerable” by some who perceive them to have paid an individual price of taking the risk of vaccination but who do not enjoy immunity from vaccination and are therefore somehow placed at risk by those who do not vaccinate.

In reality, the “Vaccinated Vulnerable” are not necessarily vulnerable because their infections tend to be asymptomatic. In fact, because of this fact, they carry the pathogen without symptoms, placing those who choose to not vaccinate due to real or perceived increase of individual risk of harm from vaccines at increased risk of infection. It is truly a good thing, therefore, that mumps and measles etc. are almost always clinically mild.

At the Institute for Pure and Applied Knowledge, we are currently calculating the effects of the efficacy of a vaccine on the relative sizes of the populations of the unvaccinated and vaccinated infected. Our preliminary results are very interesting: for every value of efficacy, along the dimension of vaccine coverage, there exists an expected switch point at which the VIs outnumber the UVIs. After the level of vaccination coverage leads to a switch point where VI > UVI, those who opt out of vaccines become scapegoats. In fact, they eventually become such insignificant contributors of risk compared to asymptomatic carriers – the ethics switch and compulsory vaccination become abusive, increasing risk to those who opt out due to empirical evidence of risk in their families.

Importantly, increased efforts to vaccinate do not change the fact that VIs outnumber UVIs until 100% vaccination is achieved, at which point the total vaccine coverage also causes 100% of those who will be injured, or die, to be found.

Here are the prediction curves for 88% efficacy:

88PERCSWITCHPOINT

Blue dots represent the % of infected who are vaccinated; orange represents the % infected who are not vaccinated.

This means there is circulating undetected asymptomatic mumps infection – that is, 100% vaccination does not eradicate the mumps virus. The presence of the unvaccinated in school only reveals the already circulating mumps virus.

At a lower level of efficacy, the switchpoint is much lower:

18PERCSWITCHPOINT

Blue dots represent the % of infected who are vaccinated; orange represents the % infected who are not vaccinated.

These preliminary predictions will be evaluated using public health data.

These models allow us to study and compare the predicted effects of various policies and practices, such as at-home testing for mumps infection (exclusion based on clinical detection of mumps virus) and the exclusion of the unvaccinated on the rates of total infection and on the rates of symptomatic infection.

The results are compelling – but they represent predictions. The expected values and relative sizes of VIs and UVIs across all levels of vaccine efficacy – and they provide a novel road to insight on the effects of vaccination on public health. The classic literature indicated 10-20% of mumps infections were asymptomatic; a recent study found that 4 of 5 – or 80% – of active mumps infections were sub-clinical – consistent with the predictions of our analyses.

Mumps1

Moreover, research at IPAK in this area may allow us to estimate the actual effectiveness of a vaccine based on the numbers of VIs and UVIs by inverting the analyses. This could be key to answer the question relevant to the Merck MMR whistleblower case in which the whistleblowers reported 18% efficacy initial test results, whereas the FDA submission cited close to 90% efficacy achieved – but after Merck allegedly spiked human samples in the lab with MMR antibodies from rabbits.

Our results to date have been shared with other scientists and a group of MDs.

Your support in continuing this effort, started in late October 2018, is desperately needed. Our aim is to complete the analyses, compare our predictions to empirical data from public health sources and the published literature, and publish the results in a mainstream vaccine journal.

The public has supported IPAK since 2016 to conduct science in the public interest. We bring objectivity to all we do. But refusing to partake in programs designed to mislead the public on risks associated with vaccines, this makes IPAK an outlier organization that openly defends the public’s right to objective, science-based public health policies.

For this effort, we are asking for monthly donations. To help IPAK complete this project, please visit this link

To make a more sizable one-time donation to drive this forward, please visit

http://ipaknowledge.org/Mumps-Efficacy.php

JAMES LYONS-WEILER, PHD

OCTOBER 27, 2018

ALLISON PARK, PA

On Simplicity

On Simplicity

OCCAM’S RAZOR is a rule that says that the simplest explanation is usually the right explanation.  Interestingly, careful analysis tells us that the probability that most explanations will be correct because they are simple is lower than the probability that explanations that are almost, but not quite the simplest will have a higher probability of being correct.

The quest for parsimonious explanations can lead to a preference for elegant “beautiful” equations in physics.  But when applied to the natural world simplicity is only a factor to the extent that the conservation of energy and mass will tend to restrict complexity from occurring.

The sociology of science is an amorphous beast – actually, it is more like a menagerie of beasts – because different disciplines and domains have different rules of engagement, different norms and acceptable behaviors.

Draconian Simpletons

Let’s start with a theoretical domain of inquiry that insists that Occam’s Razor is a rule – that the simplest explanation must ALWAYS be preferred.  Their expected probability distribution of accuracy of models would look something like this:

Draconian Simpletons

Given that most natural systems are product of the interplay between that which persists, that which exists, and that which is emerging, the actual degree of complexity will likely involve, from the perspective of the Draconian Simpletons, at least one “extra” parameter, both in reality, and allowing for resources to adequately detect the usefulness of the “extra” parameter, some proportion of those will be likely to be detected.

Too Many Parameters

Of one thing we can be certain: the Draconian Simpletons’ expectation that the simplest explanation will always be correct – is incorrect.  Given the subjectivity of the actors (scientists) in the process, there can never be a proof that the simplest explanation will always be correct.  This proves (to my satisfaction anyway) that the set of correct solutions for all problems includes solutions that are not simplest.

At the other end, models with many extra parameters are not likely to correct, either, and the ability of scientists in that domain to have sufficient acumen to detect the extraneous parameters will not be perfect, either.  So there is noise even about  our ability to assess accuracy of models, and I suspect if we mapped that noise (uncertainty) over time as a domain of science progresses, there will be a “buzz” of uncertainty before many major breakthroughs.  We all use the term “breakthrough” and we think we know what it means, but right now it seems to mean breaking through the staid muck and mire and conservative nay-saying traditions and traditionalists within a domain.

The Goldilocks Zone

In practice, empirical research will sometimes overestimate, and sometime underestimate the number of parameters needed to explain a natural phenomenon (due to limitations of Science).  Following the reality of the truth that the simplest explanation will not always be correct, expected (real, blue) and realized (estimated, orange) distributions might look something like this:

Extra

If the blue distribution is shifted to the left, the field of study might do well to apply Occam’s Razor more frequently.  If the positions are reversed – as is nearly always the case in the early ontological stages of any scientific discipline, not only is it true that “more data are needed” but also that “new questions must be asked”.

Now, depending on that disciplines’ ability to test hypotheses of merit, which is limited by available background knowledge, by technology, and by intellectual capitol – among other factors – the actual distribution may still differ from reality.  The “among other factors” include whether a study is sufficiently powered to detect the significance of just one more parameter.  Small sample sizes are notoriously likely to lead to model overfit – a better score of an incorrect model fitting the model very well to the data, but not very well to reality.    There are many objective criteria for choosing among multiple parameter models (a process called ‘model selection’); these include Mallow’s CP, and comparison of the performance evaluation measures of the model on the training set(s) to the performance on independent test sets (accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, Area Under the ROC Curve).  We should favor models that tend to generalize for the same reason we tend to prefer results of null hypothesis significance testing that tend to be reproducible.

Which is Worse: Too Few (Underspecification) or Too Many (Overspecification)?

The further away from fit of the scale of the instruments of measurement are from the actual size – and duration – of the things and events being studied, the worse the model fit will be.  Avoiding sources of bias – including human biases such as favored hypotheses – is essential.  In quantum physics, the speed of particles and the sensitivity of instruments to be able detect accurate variation may be conflate with the duality of particles existing both as a wave and as a solid.  In chemistry, too many parameters can lead to incorrect formulations, contamination.  In biology, the noise of small samples and the sheer complexity of biological systems compete and conflate ease of understanding and hypothesis testing.  In medicine, the answer appears to be known beforehand, and thus specification often tends to fit a pre-determined agenda.  In such science-like activities, objective considerations such as these need not apply.

But when the aim of Science is understanding, it is the impact of model over- and under-specification on our ability to predict the future that will ultimately determine the utility of the models.  In some settings, for some models, and infinite number of equally good models can be specified that trade-off the costs of errors in prediction among categories of entities or events being predicted; and the purist statistically minded type that insists that models should be demonstrated to be consistent – that is, converge to one, true model in the limit (with an infinite amount of data), or parameter coefficients that converge to the same precise values when the available data are analyzed again with the same model-fitting procedures are a little ODD for the realities that given that we work with finite data (a) we are likely not getting the “true model” no matter how well we fit a curve to the data, (b) we know that some machine-learning algorithms such as neural networks and genetic algorithms can evolve solutions that we cannot interpret exclusively for the lack of our ability to interpret them, not due to a limitation of the learning algorithms. 

I realize that sounds to some like a declaration of war between machine intellect and human intellect, but it is not.  It is a failing of our academic endeavors that we cannot use vestigial exercises such as Cartesian dissection of some beautifully accurate solutions rendered by artificial intelligences in this world, and the Jeff Bezoses who use them to multiple profit do not care about understanding how they work; they care about that they work.

I have just such an algorithm that dispenses with the need for parameter estimates per se and uses instead whether the model parameter values fall within a specified range sufficiently enough to matter.  Re-run the algorithm, and different inputs become important while others fall out as unimportant.  It works beautifully for heterogeneous situations such as cancer, but even though I invented the approach (GA-optimized k-of-m), I cannot look at the decision rules that are output and say that any one of them is comprehensible beyond the paradigm of “tell me which features when used together this way are most important” plus “the prediction algorithm works or it does not work”.  And that’s ok, because the accuracy – and more importantly, the generalizability of the accuracy of my framework is far more important than the intellectual satisfaction of having conversed with an algorithm.  NB:ML processes like bagging and boosting are conceptually understandable as algorithms, but combining them with decision trees leading to Random Forests led to a process that was similarly unintelligible to Leo Breiman, the co-inventor (with Adele Cutler). As a black box solution, it’s beautiful, and it’s a mistake for people who want to escape their own sense of depressed ego to label such approaches as “not in touch” with science.

Not content to wait another 10,000,000 years for organic evolution to catch up, Breiman and other machine learnists have embraced the totality of Science as a Way of Knowing by embracing its limits, and transcending them.  In my Five Ontological Stages of Science, I conclude that the best and truest test of knowledge about nature, the world and the Universe around us is to demonstrate our ability to predict what will happen when we perturb it, and this  is necessarily a pragmatic position, because society, our species, we as individuals tend to value things we can use.  My k of m GA is not simple, as it employs adaptive Darwinian evolution working on genetics modeled after evolving chromosomes, with mutations and crossing-over to boot. But it is beautiful to me nevertheless, and far superior to fixed-parameter models. It is its transcendence of fixed parameter values that is so beautiful to me, perhaps vaingloriously so, but only to the extent that I think “not bad for a biologist”: the fixed parameter values are sources of noise in predictions, whereas counting marks beyond thresholds appears to clean up the noise.

I’ll end this with a funny and true story.  I was walking along a street in downtown Boulder, CO after an Evolution conference sometime in the 1990’s when I happened upon a bar within which a troup of maximum likelihoodists had aggregated.  Among them was Nick Goldman, whom has scooped me out of a paper by publishing first[1] that the DNA Chaos Game fractal patterns were merely a numerically necessary result of unevenness in the use of nucleotide bases in the genomes being studied.  His solution was to show that nucleotide, dinucleotide and trinucleotide frequencies could explain the odd patterns, which were fractal.  Others had postulated layering, or nesting of information, or weird long-range correlations.  In my paper, which I submitted for publication ignorant of Nick’s, showed that nucleotide and dinucleotide frequencies alone were sufficient.  Both Nick’s findings and my findings show that mathematical frequencies alone were sufficient to explain the patterns, and that the CGR algorithm necessarily created recognizably fractal patterns When I saw his publication, I had sent him my manuscript with a note of congratulations.

Entering the bar, Nick was finishing up a game of billiards.  “Hey James” he said.  “You up for a round?”  I said “Sure.”  “You break” he said – my break didn’t sink any balls.  Nick was up, and he tried, but failed.

I proceeded then to clean the table.  Finishing my beer, I thanked him for the round.  “You know what your problem was there Nick?” I asked.

“No, what?” he said.

“You used too many parameters” I joked, and off I went, headed to my hotel room.

The second best part of the story is that I had never won a round of billiards before in my life.

The very best part of the story is that Nick Goldman did not know that fact.

“The aim of science is to seek the simplest explanation of complex facts. We are apt to fall into the error of thinking that the facts are simple because simplicity is the goal of our quest. The guiding motto in the life of every natural philosopher should be ‘Seek simplicity and distrust it.'”– Alfred North Whitehead

Featured image source: CS Department, Gettysburg College Student Project by Kathryn Kinzler and Jessica Wagner

Citation

[1]Nick Goldman, 1993. Nucleotide, dinucleotide and trinucleotide frequencies explain patterns observed in chaos game representations of DNA sequences. Nucleic Acids Research 21:2487-2491.

Why Did the FDA Just Ignore Safety Signals on HPV Vaccine in Women Aged 26 to 45?

 

Last Friday, the FDA approved of HPV vaccination of older women – at the end of a week in which a blockbuster book came out that highlights serious issues with the HPV vaccine – including troubling safety signals that the FDA knows about.

Previously, the vaccine had been approved for use ages 9-26, although scant data exists on the efficacy and safety in 9-year olds.  The FDA extended the approved use into an age group (27 to 45 years old women), some of whom will now almost certainly feel the effects of FDA’s latest flawed approval by experiencing autoimmunity, paralysis and death.

What the FDA Knows We Now Know, Too

From the information submitted from Merck to the US FDA, it is apparent that the vaccine used in Protocol 018, the only study of the safety of the vaccine market group  (9-15 year-olds) used only one-half the standard AAHS dose in the formulation of the vaccine. Most of the protocols of 16-26 year-olds appear to have used the full dose of AAHS in the vaccine formulation and the 9-15 year-olds in the prior immunobridging study, which compared used 9-15 year olds and 16-26 year-olds, with no controls (merely to study antibody response), which used a full dose of AAHS. In addition, the 9-15 year old cohorts were boys and girls, so, small as they were, only about half the children were female.

They also know that for the new age group there is a likely increase in the incidence of cervical cancer following vaccination.  Through two years of sleuthing, the authors of the book “HPV Vaccines of Trial” found that Merck informed FDA of a group that experienced “negative efficacy” – that is, an increase in the rate of pre-cancerous lesions that could lead to cervical cancer, and that the data show that if a woman is already infected or has evidence of prior infection at vaccination, combined with real world co-factors like smoking, they risk a 44% greater chance of developing CIN 2/3 lesions or worse. (Examiner Article, webarchive)

Which age group is most likely to already have had infection?  Women over 26.

So, combined with the bombshell reveal that the product on the market is not the product that was tested, we now have the sad problem that women over the age of 26 will join the ranks of those already at risk of autoimmune disease, paralysis and death due to the HPV vaccine.

Misinformation Campaign Gets Worse

The press does not have the scientific acumen to know that their latest coverage claiming that Australia may “eliminate HPV” (New York Times, BBC) is based on a flawed modeling effort that assumes HPV vaccination confers lifelong immunity to HPV infection.  First, it does not confer lifelong immunity to the HPV types in the vaccine; second, many other types of HPV virus exist that are not targeted by the vaccine at all – including no cross-protection – that are also high-risk (see High-Risk Type Replacement)

I have just completed recording a lecture on HPV Virus, HPV Infection and the HPV vaccines, which will be available at cancercourse.com   Persistent infection appears to be a risk – and I have a hypothesis that vaccination of the most prevalent types allows the non-vaccine targeted types present in co-infection to flourish. You can preview the lecture slides at the IPAK website.

You can hear from all three authors of this extremely important book from Thursday’s Highwire Episode:

 

You can read the evidence yourself, see the submitted data, see the pseudo-science used by Merck to convince the FDA that the HPV vaccine is safe.  What is most unbelievable is that there are people who want to mandate this vaccine.  This vaccine’s time is up.

I would like to thank Kim Mack Rosenberg for checking the accuracy of the text in first paragraph.  For the full story, #readthebook.


HPV vaccine on trial

Is Pubmed Burning Books?

Is Pubmed Burning Books?

IN 2017, I published an indictment of PLOS One for their tortured logic over the question of a link between vaccines and autism, citing an article by Dr. Peter Hotez who had cited a handful of studies as “proof” that vaccines do not cause autism.  In that article, I highlighted the fact that the Pubmed page of one of the studies cited by Hotez (Uno et al.) had a troubling comment by Dr. Janet Kern in the comment section in the Pubmed Entry.  That comment read:

“Janet Kern 2015 Mar 24 9:28 p.m.edited 0 of 1 people found this helpful
There is a statistical error in this research study. This error can be seen in Table 2 at 24 months of age. By utilizing the numbers provided in Table 2 (see below) it is evident that the difference between cases and controls at 24 months is highly statistically significant. The journal, Vaccine, was notified of the error. However, since, to date, no clarification has been issued, it is important to note that the conclusions seen in the abstract above are misleading and are the opposite of the conclusion supported by the data. The corrected results indicate that there is a statistically significant relationship between Thimerosal exposure and autism spectrum disorder.

***** At 24 months from the data provided using a t-test reveals the following:
Unpaired t test Mean of * sample 1 from summary = 804.2 (n = 189) Mean of * sample 2 from summary = 632.1 (n = 224)

Assuming equal variances Combined standard error = 71.838701 df = 411 t = 2.395645 One sided P = 0.0085 Two sided P = 0.017 95% confidence interval for difference between means = 30.882882 to 313.317118 Power (for 5% significance) = 90.07%
Assuming unequal variances Combined standard error = 72.061016 df = 394.166765 t(d) = 2.388254 One sided P = 0.0087 Two sided P = 0.0174 95% confidence interval for difference between means = 30.445864 to 313.754136 Power (for 5% significance) = 66.35%

Update 5/24/2015: When the journal Vaccine was notified of the error, it notified the authors. In response to the notification of the error, the authors changed the numbers in Table 2 of their study. The authors changed the mean and standard deviation for the controls at 24 months from 632.1 (715.1) to 676.8 (719.5). No explanation for the error or justification for the change was given.

To date, the journal Vaccine and the study authors have refused to release the study dataset for further evaluation.”

I also published a screen capture that shows the presence of a comment:

janet

The current Pubmed page for the Uno et al. study shows no comments.

One has to wonder: Is Pubmed burning books?

Pubmed is a public resource, paid for by American taxpayers.  Extreme diligence is necessary to insure that Pubmed is not a tool that becomes abused by monied interests.

Please share with academics, legislators, and medical professionals everywhere.