SPECIAL REPORT: Measure Shows Social Distancing is Working in the United States

James Lyons-Weiler, PhD

Today is 4/2/2020 and I have excellent news. In an earlier article, I described and explained how IPAK is using an estimate of Effective R0 – the basic reproductive ratio – to track progress in shutting down the spread of COVID 19. The measure is a simple ratio of the number of cases on Day X / the number of cases on Day X-5. Why X-5? It’s the asymptomatic period so the general form of Effective R0 is X/(X-A) where A is the asymptomatic period.

The goal is to push EffR0 below 1.0 – and keep it there.

Today, for the fourth day in a row, we see EffR0 for COVID-19 <1. This is best news in some time. If we keep it up, we may have zero new cases within the next week.

We still need to push for

-Prophylactic use of antivirals, supplements, naturotherapeutics to reduce viremia (viral load) in the infected.

-Massive effort to change FDA policy to allow private, in-home testing with antibody tests so Americans can know their immunity status.

For more details, check out the IPAK Back to Work Plan at the IPAK Website


You can support IPAK, a NFP Corporation in Pennsylvania, via a small monthly donation at this website. Your donation is not yet tax-deductible, but we are working on that.


  1. Considering Washington State didn’t have stats for 3 days it might look different if you used accurate and updated data finally posted 4/1 by DOH.

  2. Let’s come back in 6 months and then compare mortality due to Covid-19 and those people that commit suicide, feeling depressed, lose life-time savings and then succumbing to diseases due to this social distancing and lockdown.

      1. I wish you’re responsible for the country’s policy. It’s idiocrazy out there now. Media, public policy on gloom and doom 24 hours 7 days a week.

        BTW, those drive-thru test, 15min tests, what are those tests based on? I believe the CDC no longer are responsible for the majority of the tests. Two days ago, it was up to 1.1M and I believe it should be at least 1.3M tests having been performed now in the US.

        Have you checked the Non-farm payroll today? I fear the entire world is stepping into a 1929 x 10 times now.

    1. I don’t understand why we’re still dealing with vaccines. Those flu vaccines can’t even prevent you from getting a flu each year. BTW, sars-cov-2 is a type of virus that causes flu.

      There is already proven remedy like Hydroxychloroquine.

  3. https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/04/broken-models-cdc-doctors-screwed-bigly-usns-comfort-ny-harbor-sits-idle-3-patients-usns-mercy-la-15-patients/

    Also, test and models aside, what is the NY governor doing not transferring non-Covid-19 patients to the ship? The ship arrived in NY on Monday. Now, the media CBS is allegedly showing in its news coverage of crowded hallway in the hospitals in Brooklyn. There should have been 1000 beds free up in those NY hospitals. Now, only a few patients transferred to the ship.

    I smell a rat increasingly. Just an orchestrated plot to sink the Trump administration.

  4. How could the results be tightly correlated with social distancing? Can other factors be in place too.

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