CDC’s latest report of the rate of ASD diagnosis is stunning: 1 in 59 kids by age 8, four years ago, had a diagnosis of ASD. In boys, the rate was 1 in 34. News outlets report that ASD rates are still increasing, and no one knows why.
But a close read of the report reveals that actual rates could be much higher:
(1) They used DSM-IV criteria for prevalence data. DSM-5 was published May, 2013 – so the prevalence data using DSM-5 only should have been applied. Their use of DSM-IV criteria results in a lower rate. Using DSM-5 criteria, the rate is 1 in 29.
(2) They had a committee of experts review the cases of people at the 11 monitoring sites – any ONE of the members of the committee could rule OUT a case of ASD if they thought the DSM-IV criteria did not apply, or if other diagnoses better explained the child’s condition. I review the importance of understanding the difference between co-occurrence and co-morbidity in “The Environmental and Genetic Causes of Autism“. A child with Down’s syndrome, for example, could also have an autism diagnosis. ASD can occur to any human brain with other recognizable conditions. In some cases, where biological pathways overlap (e.g., seizures), the co-occurrence is true co-morbidity, but seizure disorder would not replace a diagnosis of ASD They did not review all non-ASD diagnoses to allow anyone ONE member of the committee to RULE IN non-ASD diagnoses and false negative diagnoses of ASD.
So the rates to report for 2014 prevalence (reported in 2018) are
“at least” 1 in 59 (DSM-IV), and “at least” 1 in 29 (DSM-5).
I have adjusted SafeMind’s plot to reflect the binary nature of CDC’s report. They are a fantastic organization who should have your support. They have not been consulted on this adjustment, and the views expressed in this analysis are my own.
No one is diagnosed using DSM-IV criteria; DSM-V has been the standard since before 2014.
Currently, in 2018, the rates are likely as high as 1 in 20 under DSM-V, and may be as high as 1 in 15. In 2022, the rates will be 1 in 8 to 1 in 6. In 2026, 1 in 3 to 1 in 2.
If you’re living in the US, and you’re not banging down the door of your Congressional Representative demanding Neurodevelopment Research Reform to find safe ways to get aluminum out of our diets, the CDC schedule, and our childrens’ and your own brains, you are a silent witness to the end of America. Remember the baby boomers are going to descend into Alzheimer’s in the same time period.
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Buy Zero Water filters for everyone you know. Buy silicic acid drops for their birthday. Don’t eat pesticides. DEMAND reform of the CDC schedule. DEMAND that the FDA ban vaccination in pregnant women and infants before one year – the way it was before the epidemic. DEMAND the cessation of the use of folic acid in prenatal vitamins – it should be methyl folate instead. DEMAND the removal of aluminum from vaccines. DEMAND a ban on thimerosal use in vaccines. DEMAND an AUTOMATED ACTIVE TRACKING SYSTEM for vaccine injuries I know THOUSANDS of people who work on these issues EVERY DAY. We need to FEAR NOT the persecution and name-calling. FEAR NOT those who would judge you.
Pass a law in your state to mandate real-time publication of state-wide estimates of ASD using insurance codes. Fight for expansion of patient and parent’s rights in your state for freedom of choice.
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-JLW
Related:
Protect Baby’s Brain from Aluminum Neurotoxicity – It’s Not Just the Vaccines
1 in 29 (DSM-5), 1 in 59 (DSM-IV)
Good analysis. It could be 1 in 20 for 2018 births and boys could be soon 1 in 10.
Thank you, Dr. Lyons-Weiler.
When the DSM 5 criteria were released, there was an unclear picture in online discussions how the changes might impact the numbers. If I remember correctly some thought that the changes would likely move some with higher functioning autism into other diagnostic categories, though there was some speculation that some of the changes could pull in an unclear number from other diagnoses. Perhaps the only certainty was that the changes would muddy the waters in terms of fingering causative environmental factors, though nobody at the time sounded like they thought that the DSM changes would go so far as to double the chance of getting an autism diagnosis.
So, I have a question as to whether with this CDC report, there was a really strong push to un-diagnose as many children as possible, purported reason being to stay consistent with previously used DSM iV criteria as an excuse, but possibly not consistent with previous CDC autism rate counting methods?
During the past decade plus, the anecdotal reports have always seemed closer to reality than CDC releases and always higher, and now the highest regional rumors I’m hearing (I’m no longer in a situation to be making much first hand observation) are saying 1 in 9 or 10 on the spectrum in those 2 or a little older.
So, I personally feel compelled to believe at least 1 in 29 and still climbing, and to feel pretty sick in the pit of my stomach.
You are correct, the “and climbing” part should motivate everyone to see what is right in front of their faces.
Dr Weiler thank you for your service to humanity. So if I understand correctly the official CDC ASD “rate” of 1 in 59 is based on DSM4 and is for children of both sexes who were 8 years old in 2014 with the boys only rate for 8 year olds from 2014 being 1 in 34. My question is, if we added other vaccine damage linked neurological disorders such as ADHD,OCD,etc. to the 1 in 59 or 1 in 34 ASD “rate” what would the rate of Neurological disorder for 8 year olds in the same cohort be? Sincerely https://flatbushantivaxxer.blogspot.com/